Liquidity management is a cornerstone of every treasury and finance department. Those who overlook a firm’s access to cash do so at their peril, as has been witnessed so many times in the past. In essence, liquidity management is the basic concept of the access to readily available cash in order to fund short-term investments, cover debts, and pay for goods and services. Liquidity planning is crucial, and involves finance and treasury managers’ ability to look to the company’s balance sheet and convert funds that are tied up in longer-term projects into cash for the firm to use in its day to day operations. In order to keep a regular grasp of the firm’s liquidity risk, managers will monitor the liquidity ratio – in which firms will compare their most liquid assets (those that can be converted into cash easily and quickly), with short term liabilities, or near-term debt obligations. The importance of liquidity management cannot be understated. Liquidity risk, which treasurers and finance department managers constantly attempt to downplay, can lead to a variety of problems and pull a company into ill health. Should the firm find itself unable to meet short term cash obligations, or cash equivalent obligations as set out in contractual terms with depositors and borrowers, it may find itself in a position in which it must sell illiquid assets quickly – which could lead to a situation in which it may be forced to accept less than those assets’ fair value. Avoiding such as situation is key to successful liquidity risk management. There are a variety of different techniques applied by firms across the globe that help mitigate liquidity risks and assist with liquidity planning: Receivables management – the strict approach to ensuring that clients and customers maintain payments in a timely and orderly fashion – is crucial. Generally speaking, clients will pay in such a way that the firm will be able to use the funds to meet short term obligations. However, with many contracts, deals and invoices stipulating a required time period within which the client must meet their payment obligations, monitoring each client’s outstanding payments and ability to pay themselves is fundamental to the smooth running of the business. This element of receivables management comes under the umbrella of cash forecasting – a key concept in good liquidity management. A good cash flow forecast accurately predicts the cash inflows and outflows expected over a pre-defined period in the future, normally twelve months. It includes projected income and expenses, and is informed by the previous period’s accounts. Being able to accurately assess when a company will have access. Within that, payables management is another cornerstone of good liquidity management. This is the maintenance of the firm’s outstanding liabilities and debts to third parties – any goods or services supplied to the firm – made on credit. Generally speaking, a firm will wait until the very last minute to fulfil these obligations, in order to maintain cash in the event that something more urgent will require funding. Depending on the size of the debts within the context of the company, firms often prefer to have outstanding debts and cash to be able to pay them, rather than neither. Another tool employed by firms to manage liquidity risks is netting portfolio management techniques, which allow a firm to consolidate debt obligations. This is the process whereby a company will net third-party invoices, more usually applied when the firm has multiple outstanding invoices from the same vendor, and agree terms by which the total outstanding amount will be paid on a certain date. This can provide the firm with a single payment rather than a number of instances in which it must dip into its cash reserves. There were many lessons learned from the financial crisis, but perhaps the most striking was that banks and larger financial services had run up huge amounts of debt, and were unable to meet their short term obligations should a shock to the market occur.
With the market pressure that hit financial markets in 2008 and the years that followed, regulators and politicians across the world pushed for better liquidity management, more responsible liquidity planning, and better liquidity risk management. Through a variety of regulations, established under the likes of the Dodd Frank Act in the US, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, now in its second incarnation in the EU, and the liquidity ratios put forth by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, regulatory oversight of markets has highlighted the importance of liquidity management. In reaction, banks and financial institutions regularly perform quick ratios – or the acid test ratio, in which current assets (less stocks) are divided by current liabilities, in order to assess the ability of the firm to meet short term obligations and each regulator’s requirements. But liquidity management is far from straightforward and brings with it many challenges that treasury and finance teams must constantly be aware of. While planning for the year ahead, managers are wary that firms cash inflows can be unpredictable. Risks such as counterparty insolvency risk play a part in assessing the business capabilities of third parties. Should a third party go bust, it may be a difficult and time-consuming process for the firm to extract payment. That may be particularly problematic if the insolvent party is operating in a different jurisdiction. Also for those firms operating across national boundaries, cross-currency transactions can be unpredictable, with fluctuations in exchange rates making it difficult to accurately ascertain exactly how much a cash inflow or outflow will be.
Companies will factor in foreign exchange risk and many will hedge to countenance different scenarios but a certain degree of unpredictability in currency markets will always exist. Further problems exist for firms operating across multiple time zones – with the added strain of chasing payments where deals are limited by time can create liquidity risk as cash inflows and outflows are expected in quick succession. Many of the challenges of liquidity planning are centred around timing, and seasonal fluctuations in a firm’s incoming and outgoing cash flows can raise liquidity risks. Most companies – from energy and logistics firms, to banks and building societies – encounter quiet followed by busier periods, when cash inflows and outflows are imbalanced. Considering liquidity risks and the associated liquidity planning, firms must take seasonal adjustments into account when analysing their accounting provisions. Indeed, the prevailing business cycle could present a firm with a situation in which outflows are due prior to inflows, stretching the company’s cash reserves should finance and treasury not recognise the importance of liquidity management.
Further complexities are presented with the consolidation of and translation of data. For instance, when finance and treasury units are pulling together their various profit and loss accounts, difficulties can arise when analysing bank statements where banks report for different time periods. This can lead to a distorted view of the amount of working capital available to the firm. Similarly, firms with a variety of operations across the globe, whether through subsidiaries or otherwise, may encounter data consolidation issues when attempting to analyse liquidity risk at the group level. Further, conglomerates of this nature may struggle more generally in moving cash between operations in order to service different short term cash flow demands specific to each entity. Choosing the right partners, in particular banks, in order to assist in this movement of cash can be crucial to the success of the enterprise. Other challenges exist in the supply chain of liquidity risk management, both presented by and resolved with technology. In the case of larger firms, pulling together different IT systems – some of which may be legacy systems – can be resource-heavy and result in a firm losing the ability to operate real-time liquidity management plans. Further, modern finance and treasury professionals have come to demand the latest technology and, where partners and internal systems are out of synchronisation with what those executives have come to rely on, issues can arise where IT training is required for the use of liquidity software in mobile and application softwares.
Financial risk is the possibility of losing money on an investment or business venture. Some more common and distinct financial risks include credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk. Financial risk is a type of danger that can result in the loss of capital to interested parties. For governments, this can mean they are unable to control monetary policy and default on bonds or other debt issues. Corporations also face the possibility of default on debt they undertake but may also experience failure in an undertaking the causes a financial burden on the business.
Financial markets face financial risk due to various macroeconomic forces, changes to the market interest rate, and the possibility of default by sectors or large corporations. Individuals face financial risk when they make decisions that may jeopardize their income or ability to pay a debt they have assumed. Financial risks are everywhere and come in many shapes and sizes, affecting nearly everyone. You should be aware of the presence of financial risks. Knowing the dangers and how to protect yourself will not eliminate the risk, but it can mitigate their harm and reduce the chances of a negative outcome. It is expensive to build a business from the ground up. At some point in any company's life the business may need to seek outside capital to grow. This need for funding creates a financial risk to both the business and to any investors or stakeholders invested in the company. Credit risk—also known as default risk—is the danger associated with borrowing money. Should the borrower become unable to repay the loan, they will default. Investors affected by credit risk suffer from decreased income from loan repayments, as well as lost principal and interest. Creditors may also experience a rise in costs for collection of the debt. When only one or a handful of companies are struggling it is known as a specific risk. This danger, related to a company or small group of companies, includes issues related to capital structure, financial transactions, and exposure to default. The term is typically used to reflect an investor's uncertainty of collecting returns and the accompanying potential for monetary loss. Businesses can experience operational risk when they have poor management or flawed financial reasoning. Based on internal factors, this is the risk of failing to succeed in its undertakings.
Many analysis identify at least five types of financial risk: market risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. Financial risk also refers to the possibility of a government losing control of its monetary policy and being unable or unwilling to control inflation and defaulting on its bonds or other debt issues. Governments issue debt in the form of bonds and notes to fund wars, build bridges and other infrastructure and pay for their general day-to-day operations. The U.S. government's debt—known as Treasury bonds—is considered one of the safest investments in the world. The list of governments that have defaulted on debt they issued includes Russia, Argentina, Greece, and Venezuela. Sometimes these entities only delay debt payments or pay less than the agreed-upon amount; either way, it causes financial risk to investors and other stakeholders. Several types of financial risk are tied to financial markets. As mentioned earlier, many circumstances can impact the financial market. As demonstrated during the 2007 to 2008 global financial crisis, when a critical sector of the market struggles it can impact the monetary wellbeing of the entire marketplace. During this time, businesses closed, investors lost fortunes, and governments were forced to rethink their monetary policy. However, many other events also impact the market. Volatility brings uncertainty about the fair value of market assets. Seen as a statistical measure, volatility reflects the confidence of the stakeholders that market returns match the actual valuation of individual assets and the marketplace as a whole. Measured as implied volatility (IV) and represented by a percentage, this statistical value indicates the bullish or bearish—market on the rise versus the market in decline—view of investments. Volatility or equity risk can cause abrupt price swings in shares of stock. Default and changes in the market interest rate can also pose a financial risk. Defaults happen mainly in the debt or bond market as companies or other issuers fail to pay their debt obligations, harming investors. Changes in the market interest rate can push individual securities into being unprofitable for investors, forcing them into lower-paying debt securities or facing negative returns. Asset-backed risk is the chance that asset-backed securities—pools of various types of loans—may become volatile if the underlying securities also change in value. Sub-categories of asset-backed risk involve the borrower paying off a debt early, thus ending the income stream from repayments and significant changes in interest rates.
In 2021, the U.S. high yield default rate finished at a record low 0.5%. 2022 and 2023 projections by Fitch Solutions anticipates continual lower than average default rates. Individuals can face financial risk when they make poor decisions. This hazard can have wide-ranging causes from taking an unnecessary day off of work to investing in highly speculative investments. Every undertaking has exposure to pure risk—dangers that cannot be controlled, but some are done without fully realizing the consequences. Liquidity risk comes in two flavors for investors to fear. The first involves securities and assets that cannot be purchased or sold quickly enough to cut losses in a volatile market. Known as market liquidity risk this is a situation where there are few buyers but many sellers. The second risk is funding or cash flow liquidity risk. Funding liquidity risk is the possibility that a corporation will not have the capital to pay its debt, forcing it to default, and harming stakeholders. Speculative risk is one where a profit or gain has an uncertain chance of success. Perhaps the investor did not conduct proper research before investing, reached too far for gains, or invested too large of a portion of their net worth into a single investment. Investors holding foreign currencies are exposed to currency risk because different factors, such as interest rate changes and monetary policy changes, can alter the calculated worth or the value of their money. Meanwhile, changes in prices because of market differences, political changes, natural calamities, diplomatic changes, or economic conflicts may cause volatile foreign investment conditions that may expose businesses and individuals to foreign investment risk. Financial risk, in itself, is not inherently good or bad but only exists to different degrees. Of course, "risk" by its very nature has a negative connotation, and financial risk is no exception. A risk can spread from one business to affect an entire sector, market, or even the world. Risk can stem from uncontrollable outside sources or forces, and it is often difficult to overcome. While it isn't exactly a positive attribute, understanding the possibility of financial risk can lead to better, more informed business or investment decisions. Assessing the degree of financial risk associated with a security or asset helps determine or set that investment's value. Risk is the flip side of the reward. One could argue that no progress or growth can occur, be it in a business or a portfolio, without assuming some risk. Finally, while financial risk usually cannot be controlled, exposure to it can be limited or managed.
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Luckily there are many tools available to individuals, businesses, and governments that allow them to calculate the amount of financial risk they are taking on. The most common methods that investment professionals use to analyze risks associated with long-term investments—or the stock market as a whole—include:
For example, when evaluating businesses, the debt-to-capital ratio measures the proportion of debt used given the total capital structure of the company. A high proportion of debt indicates a risky investment. Another ratio, the capital expenditure ratio, divides cash flow from operations by capital expenditures to see how much money a company will have left to keep the business running after it services its debt. In terms of action, professional money managers, traders, individual investors, and corporate investment officers use hedging techniques to reduce their exposure to various risks. Hedging against investment risk means strategically using instruments—such as options contracts—to offset the chance of any adverse price movements. In other words, you hedge one investment by making another.
Statistical and numerical analysis are great tools for identifying potential risk, but prior financial history is not indicative of a company's future performance. Make sure to analyze trends over a long period of time to better understand whether fluctuations (or lack thereof) are progress towards a financial goal or inconsistent operating activity. Bloomberg and other financial commentators point to the June 2018 closure of retailer Toys "R" Us as proof of the immense financial risk associated with debt-heavy buyouts and capital structures, which inherently heighten the risk for creditors and investors. In September 2017, Toys "R'" Us announced it had voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. In a statement released alongside the announcement, the company's chair and CEO said the company was working with debtholders and other creditors to restructure the $5 billion of long-term debt on its balance sheet. As reported in an article by CNN Money, much of this financial risk reportedly stemmed from a 2005 US $6.6 billion leveraged buyout (LBO) of Toys "R" Us by mammoth investment firms Bain Capital, KKR & Co., and Vornado Realty Trust. The purchase, which took the company private, left it with $5.3 billion in debt secured by its assets and it never really recovered, saddled as it was by $400 million worth of interest payments annually. The Morgan-led syndicate commitment didn't work. In March 2018, after a disappointing holiday season, Toys "R" Us announced that it would be liquidating all of its 735 U.S. locations to offset the strain of dwindling revenue and cash amid looming financial obligations. Reports at the time also noted that Toys "R" Us was having difficulty selling many of the properties, an example of the liquidity risk that can be associated with real estate. In November 2018, the hedge funds and Toys "R" Us' debt holders Solus Alternative Asset Management and Angelo Gordon took control of the bankrupt company and talked about reviving the chain. In February 2019, The Associated Press reported that a new company staffed with ex-Toys "R" Us execs, Tru Kids Brands, would relaunch the brand with new stores later in the year. In late 2019, Tru Kids Brands opened two new stores—one in Paramus, New Jersey, and the other in Houston, Texas. Most recently, Macy's has partnered with WHP Global to bring back the Toys "R" Us brand. In 2022, Macy's plans to roll out approximately 400 physical toy store storefronts within existing Macy's locations.
Identifying financial risks involves considering the risk factors a company faces. This entails reviewing corporate balance sheets and statements of financial positions, understanding weaknesses within the company's operating plan, and comparing metrics to other companies within the same industry. There are several statistical analysis techniques used to identify the risk areas of a company.
Financial risk can often be mitigated, although it may be difficult or unnecessarily expensive for some to completely eliminate the risk. Financial risk can be neutralized by holding the right amount of insurance, diversifying your investments, holding sufficient funds for emergencies, and maintaining different income streams.
Understanding, measuring, and mitigating financial risk is critical for the long-term success of an organization. Financial risk may prevent a company from successfully accomplishing its finance-related objectives like paying loans on time, carrying a healthy amount of debt, or delivering goods on time. By understanding what causes financial risk and putting measures in place to prevent it, a company will likely experience stronger operating performance and yield better returns.
Financial risk does impact every company. However, financial risk heavily depends on the operations and capital structure of an organization. Therefore, financial risk is an example of unsystematic risk because it is specific to each individual company. |
Unpredictable fluctuations in cash flows and investment opportunities are uses of liquidity.
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